The 2026 “Transformation”
by
Jay R. Mandle
The economic historian Karl Polanyi wrote in 1944 that a “double movement” has long been operative in advanced capitalist societies. In that double movement, “the market economy expanded continuously, but the movement was met by a countermovement checking” that expansion. In The Great Transformation, Polanyi argued that such countermovements were “vital for the protection of society…[because] a market economy if left to evolve according to its own laws would create great and permanent evils.”
Much of recent United States economic history can be understood within Polanyi’s framework. Starting with the 1930s New Deal, continuing with the Great Society of Lyndon Johnson, and the healthcare and environmental policies of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, progressives have recognized the importance of government action as a counterweight to the excessive power of big business.
Seen in this framework, the ultimate objective of the Trump/Musk Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is to reduce the government’s ability to act as an offset to corporate market power. But Polanyi’s work suggests the possibility that a countermovement will emerge – one designed to limit the dismembering of government and the widespread damage that DOGE cutbacks are inflicting on American society.
Trump and Musk have been super-aggressive in attacking existing governmental protections. As of mid-March, at least fifteen government agencies have been placed on the chopping block: the Departments of Education, Defense, Energy, Agriculture, Housing and Development, the Interior, Veterans Affairs and the Treasury. In addition, they have eviscerated critical agencies like the Internal Revenue Service, NASA, USAID, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Federal Aviation Authority, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and the United States Postal Service.
No corner of government operations has been too small or too insignificant to escape the Trump/Musk effort to free corporations to do whatever they choose, no matter the consequences. Be assured, profit-maximizing firms have no social conscience. The fact is that if these cuts are fully implemented, the United States will be dragged down to unheard of levels of dysfunction.
However, there is evidence that the beginning of a Polanyi-type countermovement is underway. Recently, the Center for Political Communication at the University of Delaware reported that 3 percent of Democrats trust Musk “at lot or a great deal.“ That, of course, is not surprising. But it is striking that trust in Musk among Independents is similarly low: only 11 percent trust him a “lot or a great deal.” And even among Republicans, almost half (47 percent) report that their trust in Musk is less than “a lot or a great deal.”
The question is whether these manifestations of distrust will be transformed into an effective political opposition to the Trump/Musk project. If that were to happen, Republicans could lose their majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections, with Democrats taking over House leadership. Currently there are 215 Democrats seated in the House. Roll Call identifies 180 of the House seats as solidly Republican, with 179 seats held solidly by Democrats. That means control of that chamber will be determined by the outcomes of 79 districts where the vote could go either way. If the Democrats start now to mount effective campaigns, they could secure the 39 additional seats needed to win back the House. Depending on the size and strength of the movement countering Trump/Musk, even the Senate might be in play.
It is, of course, too early to be confident about such an outcome. But Roll Call’s Nathan Gonzales’s analysis of the 79 contested seats suggests that might be the case in 2026. Gonzales writes, “typically, mid-term elections go poorly for the president’s party, particularly in the House. Winning parties in presidential elections years prematurely declare a mandate and overreach and voters respond by sending more members of the ‘out’ party to Washington as a check and balance.” He predicts that “support for Trump’s policies on government efficiency, tariffs and foreign policy will wane if his actions start to hurt people’s everyday lives.”
Success by the Democrats in the 2026 Congressional elections will ultimately depend on how well that Party will tap into and mobilize the growing discontent already evident toward DOGE. There is alot at stake. But it remains for the Democratic Party to seize the moment now, step up, and lead the countermovement that Polanyi had anticipated.
________________________________________________________ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jay Mandle is the Emerita W. Bradford Wiley Professor of Economics, Emeritus,at Colgate University. His many books include Change Elections to Change America: Democracy Matters Students In Action, and Creating Political Equality: Elections As a Public Good,. Mandle’s regular monthly editorials, Money On My Mind, appear on the Democracy Matters website where they explore the role of private money in politics and other critical social issues.
The views expressed in Money On My Mind are those of the author, (not necessarily those of Democracy Matters, and are meant to stimulate discussion.